Day 128

South Africa’s daily case numbers continue to go up rapidly and so one would expect the death rate also to continue to climb. The first graph below has a 7 day moving average applied to both plots, just to make it easier to align them. In the second graph I have not applied the moving average, so that we can use our very crude method of using the case rate to predict the death rate.

It looks like South Africa will have a death rate of around 65 in 9 days.

Let’s take a look at the top 10 lists again. Interestingly in the fastest risers we only have one African country and no one from Latin America at all. India and Russia had above 200 deaths per day for the first time.

In the US (Northeast included) there are only 6 states where there was a rise in the death rate for the past week.

If we look at the bigger picture again, we see that the US and Canada is about 11 days behind Western Europe but following almost the exact same trajectory. Latin America is about a week behind the US and Canada and has definitely lost some steam. Is this the peak for them? Daily case numbers continue to climb for Latin America so I doubt it. India and Africa still don’t really show up on this scale.

Sweden is also going in the wrong direction again, while Italy is still trending down nicely. In cumulative deaths per 1 million Sweden is still doing better than Italy, but the difference is getting smaller each day.